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Saturday, October 23, 2004

Fantasy outlook



By John Nemo
Enquirer contributor

Six weeks into the 2004 season, the only thing clear about the situation at running back is that nothing is clear.

Because while guys like Reuben Droughns and Mewelde Moore have escaped obscurity to produce huge games in recent weeks, alleged studs like Ahman Green and Marshall Faulk have become harder to find than honest politicians. Below is an attempt to analyze the confounding confusion at the most important of all fantasy football positions.

Martin Mania

Boy, I have to hand it to you guys. You took one look at 31-year-old Curtis Martin's career stats and realized he'd only reached double digits in rushing touchdowns three times (1995, 1996, 2001) and that he had a career-low two scores last year. It was obvious to everyone but you guys that Curtis' best days as a scorer seemed long gone. So there you were, lying in the weeds on draft day, casually grabbing Martin in the middle or late rounds of the draft. You even pretended to stifle a yawn when you made the pick! And now Martin has rushed for an NFL-best 616 yards while adding seven touchdowns. You are such geniuses! Either that, or else you're the luckiest bunch of ... oh, forget it.

Either way, Martin has been unstoppable. The same goes for Tiki Barber, another guy most of us were lukewarm on thanks to all the preseason blather about Ron Dayne. I even remember a resolute Tiki saying something to the effect of, "Well, that's just the way it's going to be" during training camp when asked what he thought of the talk that Dayne would be the main guy in New York.

Tiki, you lout! You fooled us all! Here we stand, five games into Giants' season and Barber has 577 yards rushing, 240 yards receiving and four scores. Meanwhile Dayne is buried somewhere near Jimmy Hoffa in the Meadowlands.

To a lesser extent the same story (does it sound like a broken record now?) is coming true with Atlanta's Warrick Dunn, who had 343 yards rushing and six rushing touchdowns through the first five games. Finally, T.J. Duckett scored one for all us fat kids when he usurped Dunn last week and took the bulk of the work against San Diego. I wish I could say this madness will end, but it looks like those of you who got Dunn, Barber and particularly Martin should keep right on smiling for weeks to come.

Waiver Wonders

Every league has one - or, if you're in my league, several - of those geeks who stay up until 12:01 a.m. and then log in so they can be the first guys to make transactions. And while staying up late to pick up the likes of Kerry Collins or Jonathan Quinn creates plenty of taunting from fellow owners, those of you who picked up Droughns or Moore in recent weeks are doing all the laughing now.

Denver's Mike Shanahan has earned the admiration of fantasy owners everywhere by picking one back, then literally pounding the guy until his body falls apart. Droughns seems the perfect back for that system, a bowling ball with enough speed and cutback ability to break some long gains. Shanahan sure thinks so. He gave Droughns nearly 70 carries (for 369 yards and two scores) over the past two games. This week Reuben gets to face the Bengals, which is the fantasy equivalent of setting a pound of fresh hamburger down in front of a pack of starving dogs.

Former Minnesota Vikings Coach Denny Green was famous in the Twin Cities for always saying, "It's the system" when talking about how he could plug anyone into his offense and make them succeed. And while Denny is long gone, Minnesota is making good on that promise. Moore has gone from fourth-stringer to fantasy stud in the past two weeks, averaging close to 200 combined yards rushing and receiving each week. He'll get another start Sunday, and there's talk that he could keep right on starting even though top back Michael Bennett is finally getting healthy. (Until his next injury, that is.)

Marshall, Marshall, Marshall!

Speaking of horrific Running Back By Committee scenarios rearing their ugly heads, what in the name of Eric Dickerson is going on in St. Louis?

I mean, Marshall Faulk staying healthy? Hey, this was not in the cards when I nearly broke another owner's arm by forcing him to trade me Faulk's backup, rookie Steven Jackson. After all, Jackson is 10 years younger than the 31-year-old Faulk, who hasn't played a full season since 1999. And it's been obvious since the preseason that Jackson is a fantasy explosion just waiting to happen. But now, the worst possible thing is happening: The Rams are winning! That means Mike Martz isn't about to go away from splitting the carries almost evenly between Faulk and Jackson.

So if you want to know how myself and other Faulk/Jackson owners are feeling these days, climb up onto your roof, crumple up a printout of the Rams' rushing stats, fling it into the backyard and begin screaming, "Knees, Marshall, Knees!" at the top of your lungs. Ignore the gawking neighbors and barking dogs, then calmly climb back down when the police arrive.

Oh man, Ahman

I hate to pat myself on the back, but I will anyway, because I saw this one coming a mile away. If you look at Ahman Green's career numbers, last year's 20 TDs were essentially twice as much as anything he'd ever done before. And now Green hasn't scored a touchdown since Week One and hasn't topped 100 yards rushing since Week Two. Did I mention he's banged up and has two more tough matchups (Dallas and Washington) looming on the schedule, followed by the Packers' bye week? Please feel free to begin submitting your nominations for Fantasy Bust of 2004.

All this talk about running backs is giving me a headache. I think I'll go outside and get some fresh air. Maybe rake some leaves. Hmm, maybe I'll just take this Rams printout with me too and see what's up on the roof...

HOT BOX

Gotta Play: Byron Leftwich, QB, Jaguars. He's alive! He's alive! After averaging around 150 yards passing and one touchdown the first three weeks, Leftwich has averaged more than 300 yards passing with five TDs in the past three games. Better yet, he's added a pair of rushing TDs. Ignore his nagging injuries and start him this week against Indianapolis' soft secondary.

Stay Away: Boo Williams, TE, Saints. Boo who? My point exactly. A mere 116 receiving yards and one score in five games has made this guy harder to find than Casper the Friendly Ghost. Drop him already, people. If Boo shows any signs of life, you can always pick him back up off waivers.

Worth Watching: Jermaine Wiggins, TE, Vikings. He came back from a hand injury last week and grabbed a pair of touchdowns along with 56 yards receiving. With Randy Moss likely to miss this week's game and Daunte Culpepper morphing into Dan Marino circa 1984, there are plenty of TD passes to go around in Minnesota. Wiggins is likely gone in most leagues, but if he's not, you should pick him up if you need a fill-in at tight end.

---

John Nemo has been writing his nationally syndicated fantasy football column since 2001. Reach him at nemofreelance@yahoo.com




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