By John Nemo

No time to talk. Gotta give you my thoughts on the quarterback situation heading into 2004.

• No duh: Daunte Culpepper, Peyton Manning.

The 27-year-old Culpepper is in the prime of his career, has arguably the best supporting cast in the NFL and a fairly easy schedule. Barring injury, he will be the best fantasy QB by far in 2004. While Manning won't match Culpepper's overall stats, Peyton remains the safest pick in fantasy football.

• Second best, with questions: Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb.

HOT BOX

Gotta get: Quentin Griffin, RB, Broncos. He's the front-runner to win the starting gig, and if he holds off Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell and the rest, you can bet he'll be a 1,000 yards/10 touchdowns player. Denver backs always produce, no matter who they are. Stay away: Keyshawn Johnson, WR, Cowboys. Dallas Coach Bill Parcells made fun of Johnson last week for being rusty, and it's obvious the 32-year-old has been past his fantasy prime for some time. Worth watching: Anquan Boldin, WR, Cardinals. Nothing gets a fantasy owner's anxiety level rising like the words "knee injury." Arizona coach Dennis Green said Boldin would miss only a few weeks with the injury, but now the talk is he'll miss 8-12 weeks. Still, he might make sense as a late-round pick who could come on midseason.

These two have huge upsides and a decent amount of risk. Vick's sore hamstring last week was a reminder just how precarious his health can be. If he stays healthy, if things go right, he could be a fantasy superstar. We all remember 2002 (798 rushing yards, eight rushing TDs) and how having Vick is like starting a third running back. "Horrible" doesn't even begin to describe McNabb for the first half of 2003 (three touchdowns in eight weeks), and he ended with just 16 touchdown passes. He hasn't thrown more than 20 TDs in a season since 2001. Yes, Terrell Owens is a huge upgrade at wide receiver, but that doesn't mean there aren't doubts about McNabb.

• Third grade: Marc Bulger, Matt Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks, Steve McNair, Trent Green, Brett Favre.

Start obsessing right now about how you're going to steal Brooks from underneath everybody else's noses. He has a cake schedule in 2004 and has been a model of consistency over the past three years, averaging 3,651 yards passing with 26 TDs and a couple of rushing scores as well. Favre again appears a lock for 30 or so touchdowns, but his yardage gets lower every year. Bulger is Bulger, which means you'll get a boatload of touchdowns, yards and miscues. Hasselbeck had a breakout season in 2003 (3,844 yards and 26 TDs, two rushing scores) and should excel again. McNair is a warrior who will find a way to get you 20-25 passing scores and a few rushing scores. Green is on his last legs, but my 95-year-old grandmother could step into Kansas City's offense and throw 25 TDs.

• Fourth and fading: Jeff Garcia, Chad Pennington, Brad Johnson, Tom Brady, Jake Plummer, Byron Leftwich, Drew Bledsoe, Mark Brunell.

Now we're getting down to the guys who have more questions than the SATs. I like Pennington the best of this group, given that he's finally healthy and that he has Santana Moss to throw to. Garcia, if he remains upright, could be a decent player most weeks. Plummer and Johnson both have favorable passing schedules, but again health and talented receivers are a huge question mark here. Brady gets you 20-25 TDs, but he's wildly inconsistent from a fantasy perspective. Bledsoe has to be better than he was in 2003 (2,860 yards, 11 passing TDs), and Brunell could be a nice late-round steal if he gets off to a hot start with Washington. Leftwich, if he had better receivers, would be the guy to target for a gigantic season, but even so, he should continue to improve.

• Take a chance: David Carr, Josh McCown, Jake Delhomme, Joey Harrington, Kurt Warner/Eli Manning, Rich Gannon/Kerry Collins.

Everyone is huffing and puffing about how this will be Carr's breakout season. Anything would be a breakout compared to the whopping nine passing TDs he has averaged the past two seasons. Certainly the Houston offense appears to be loaded with young stars (Andre Johnson, Domanick Davis), so Carr could really surprise if the Texans can protect him. I like McCown as a definite sleeper in 2004, though obviously you shouldn't bank on using him as your primary guy. Probably the best of this group will be Delhomme, who has a very favorable passing schedule. Harrington should be better in 2004, but we've heard that before. As for the Giants and Raiders, both situations look unstable and ugly at best.

• No way: Carson Palmer, Jay Fiedler/A.J. Feeley, Vinny Testaverde, Rex Grossman, Tommy Maddox, Kyle Boller, Tim Rattay, Drew Brees/Philip Rivers.

Don't waste a pick on anybody in this group - they should all be sitting on waivers, so you can pick them up if they show a pulse early on.

John Nemo can be reached at

nemofreelance@yahoo.com.

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