One of the most blatant examples last year was rookie Larry Johnson, whose arrival in Kansas City scared scores of fantasy owners away from a then-gimpy Priest Holmes. All anyone could talk about was how great Johnson looked and that his arrival was an obvious signal of Holmes' impending doom. Holmes responded by scoring 27 touchdowns and rushing for 1,420 yards, nearly single-handedly winning the Super Bowl for more than a few fantasy teams. Johnson, meanwhile, tallied a whopping 85 yards and one touchdown and was demoted to third string halfway into the season.

This year, the talk already has started: Watch out for Tony Hollings. Beware of Chris Perry. Don't forget about Greg Jones. Hey, did you see what Tom Coughlin said about Ron Dayne?

Let me speak collectively for fantasy owners everywhere when I say: Ugh.

As if prepping for a fantasy draft or auction wasn't hard enough, now you'll have to sweat whether Houston offensive coordinator Chris Palmer really means it when he says Hollings will get 12-15 touches a game, cutting significantly into starter Domanick Davis' workload. And though he talks tough - Davis predicted this spring he'd rush for 2,000 yards - Davis isn't the most durable back in the business. So it makes sense when Palmer says they want to maximize Davis' value by spelling him with Hollings.

The other issue is that NFL people continue to rave about Hollings' potential to be a star, even though he hardly played running back in college and is coming off a knee injury. Believe it when you see it. Don't stay away from Davis because of this talk. He proved last year (1,031 yards rushing, eight touchdowns) he's the real deal.

For the Bengals, one disgruntled back (Corey Dillon) was let loose because a relative nobody (Rudi Johnson) came out of nowhere to outplay him in 2003.

As a reward for Johnson's terrific season, the Bengals gave him a one-year deal, then drafted Michigan star Perry in the first round. The thought here is that the Perry angle is being overblown, though there's no doubt Cincy envisions him being a star in the future.

But Perry is holding out right now, giving "Ru-di" a big, big advantage heading into the season. Johnson, who managed to rush for more than 160 yards in three of his five starts last year, should keep Perry on the bench for at least the first several weeks of 2004.

So relax if you're bound and determined to have Rudi this year. In fact, I'd be more worried about Cincy's schedule and the impact of Carson Palmer taking over at quarterback than Chris Perry suddenly stealing the spotlight from Rudi.

Greg Jones was a star at Florida State before blowing out his knee in 2002, and he struggled to regain his form in college last season. Still, the Jaguars didn't hesitate in drafting him.

Everyone wants to say the 250-pound Jones will become the new Stacey Mack and steal all of Fred Taylor's short-yardage carries. Don't buy it.

Taylor scored five of his six rushing touchdowns from 5 yards or less last year, and he had a whopping (for him) 345 rushing attempts. The guy once known as "Fragile Freddy" looked fantastic (1,572 yards rushing). He's going to drop too far in drafts and auctions because everybody will be gushing about Jones and the vulture factor this summer.

And we save the best bluster for last. Dayne was talked up in the early days of training camp because new head coach Coughlin wants to return the Giants to the "Thunder and Lightning" days with Dayne and Tiki Barber.

There's just one problem: The Giants have tried this before. And it has failed. Dayne is what he is - a gigantic bust. And although it might take the hardheaded Coughlin a few months to figure it out for himself, by October things will be back to normal.

Dayne will be buried on the bench while Barber gets 20-25 carries a game. Word also has it the Giants were looking to sign Mack. Maybe he could be the "Thunder" after Dayne falls on his face again.

HOT BOX

Gotta get: Eric Moulds, WR, Bills. The word out of Buffalo's camp is that Moulds, 31, is primed for a huge comeback. After last year's nightmare (780 receiving yards, 1 TD) anything will be an improvement for the former Pro Bowl receiver. Also, with the memory of Buffalo's atrocious 2003 season still fresh in many owners' heads, Moulds might come cheap in auctions and drafts this summer.

Stay away: Stephen Davis, RB, Panthers. DeShaun Foster's emergence late last season is going to cost Davis when it comes to carries in 2004. Carolina is determined to keep both backs healthy by having them split time, and Davis always wears down from overuse anyway. Rest assured somebody will go "big name" and take Davis way too early in your draft. Don't be that guy.

Worth watching: Brandon Lloyd, WR, 49ers. True, the 49ers have nothing left besides Kevan Barlow. But somebody has to catch the ball, and San Francisco coach Dennis Erickson is gushing about how great Lloyd has looked so far in camp. Sleeper, anyone?

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John Nemo writes his nationally syndicated fantasy football column weekly. Contact him at nemofreelance@yahoo.com

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