By JEFF D'ALESSIO
Florida Today

He played part-time as a senior in college, tumbled all the way to the sixth round of the draft and rode the pine as an NFL rookie.

"Decent arm. Could be an NFL backup," reported The Sporting News.

But in the end, Tom Brady, the 199th pick of the 2000 draft, didn't turn out half bad.

The New England quarterback, who will try to power the Patriots to their second Super Bowl title in three years, is just one example of the inexact science of finding a good pro quarterback.

Of the eight quarterbacks whose teams are still alive in the playoffs, more were drafted after the 150th pick or not at all (four) than were in the first round (three).

"It's harder to project than most positions," said longtime NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh, who coached the position with the Oakland Raiders before being hired last month as the University of San Diego's head coach. "At the quarterback position, you have some other factors that don't show up on tape, like intelligence. ... You know, you don't have to be able to throw the ball 70 yards in the air to be able to be a great NFL quarterback."

Ryan Leaf, the No. 2 pick of the 1998 draft, was out of the league five years later.

"He sure looked like he had all the physical things, but he didn't have the rest of it," Dallas Cowboys legend Roger Staubach said. "Brady does. And how's a Kurt Warner step out of the Arena Football League?"

Warner was bagging groceries in Iowa five years before leading the Rams to Super Bowl XXXIV. Jake Delhomme and Anthony Wright, who led Carolina and Baltimore to division titles, weren't drafted at all. Kansas City's Trent Green (222nd overall pick in 1993) and San Francisco's Jeff Garcia (undrafted) toiled in the Canadian Football League before getting a shot in the NFL.

Future Hall of Famer Brett Favre was a second-round pick, selected after Dan McGwire, who's better known for being slugger Mark's brother than for his two-touchdown, six-interception, five-year run in the NFL, and Todd Marinovich, who bombed on the field and gained fame for his off-the-field adventures.

"Brett Favre and Steve Young started their careers on Atlanta and Tampa Bay," said former Buffalo quarterback Jim Kelly. "They didn't have much around them, didn't get to utilize their talents. But they were able to flourish other places."

That, Kelly says, is the key. It's all about, first, getting in the right system and second, getting an opportunity.

Kelly was one of the lucky ones. After flourishing for two seasons in the now-defunct United States Football League - he passed for 9,842 yards and tossed 83 touchdowns with the Houston Gamblers - he was signed by the Buffalo Bills, where he was surrounded by top talent and in a system that fit his style.

Kelly proceeded to lead the Bills to four straight Super Bowl appearances.

"Sometimes guys just need a chance," said Kelly. "I remember when I was in college, I thought I was the better quarterback my freshman year but I never got a chance to show it until the seventh, eighth game of my redshirt freshman year."

Brady might have never gotten a chance to start in New England had Drew Bledsoe not gone down with an injury during the 2001 season, giving his backup a shot. Brady made the most of it, leading New England to the Super Bowl XXXVI title and winning game MVP honors less than two years after being shunned on draft day.

"I wouldn't say we're geniuses," said Patriots vice president for player personnel Scott Pioli, one of the men responsible for the Brady pick. "We didn't see it for five rounds, either."

Used to be, teams rode star quarterbacks to Super Bowl championships year after year.

The list of title teams in the 1990s featured a who's who of them. Elway. Young. Aikman. Montana. Favre. Simms.

"Obviously, teams in the last few years have proven that you don't need (a star to win it all)," said Tom Heckert, director of player personnel for the Philadelphia Eagles. "But I think your chances are a lot better if you do have a star quarterback."

How to pick a quarterback

Former Dallas Cowboys personnel director Gil Brandt says Mississippi quarterback Eli Manning is "a can't-miss guy." But there will be few others like him in this year's draft.

What NFL teams look at when evaluating QB prospects:

1. Accuracy. "Arm strength is important, but getting the ball in the right place is probably more important," says Scott Pioli, New England Patriots vice president of player personnel.

Arm strength can actually work against a young player, Hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly says. "It can make you a little cocky. You force things in that the average quarterback wouldn't because you think you can get it in there."

2. Supporting cast. This is where it gets tricky. How much of a quarterback's college resume is due to the strong talent surrounding him?

"The quarterback can be skewed by what the talent is around them," former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh says. "You see a lot of Heisman Trophy winners that aren't great pro players for that reason."

3. Intelligence. One reason Brandt's such a Manning fan: Eli grew up in a football family and knows the game inside and out. At the NFL Scouting Combine, teams spend hours grilling prospects on how they'd attack certain coverage schemes.

"Usually, the better competition a kid's faced, the better chance he has of succeeding in the NFL," Philadelphia Eagles player personnel director Tom Heckert says.

4. Intangibles. Could be leadership skills. Could be something else. One of the things that the Patriots liked so much about former Michigan QB Tom Brady was that he was used to playing in a chilly climate.

"He played in a venue similar to ours," Pioli says. "At Michigan, they play in a lot of the elements and they play on real grass."

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