Tuesday, December 16, 2003
Bengals control fate
Would win tiebreaker even if Ravens also win out
By Mark Curnutte
The Cincinnati Enquirer
It's official. The Bengals control their playoff destiny.
If they win their last two games, the Bengals are AFC North champs, even if Baltimore wins both of its games.
The Elias Sports Bureau, official statistician for the NFL, confirmed Monday that if the teams remain tied at season's end, the Bengals have clinched all tiebreakers. As long as the Bengals and Ravens have identical won-loss records, the Bengals win the division title.
Both teams are 8-6.
On Sunday, the Bengals play at St. Louis, where the 11-3 Rams have won 13 in a row and are fighting with Philadelphia for home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs.
The Rams are a 6 1/2-point favorite Sunday.
The Ravens are at Cleveland.
Bengals coach Marvin Lewis is not worrying about possible playoff scenarios.
"We don't need to worry about anything but winning the game," he said Monday. "We just have to worry about the Rams. There needs to be no other speculation talk."
The Bengals' magic number is two. The Bengals could clinch a division tie Sunday with a win and a Ravens loss.
Elias also confirmed Monday that the Bengals have an insurmountable edge in the fifth tiebreaker - strength of victory. That number is the cumulative winning percentage of the teams each club has defeated. Through Sunday's games, teams defeated by the Bengals have a combined winning percentage of .455, and teams defeated by the Ravens are at .402.
Lewis said that he had learned of the Bengals' tiebreaker advantages.
"I guess that it already has been figured out, which is positive for us, but let's just take care of business," he said. "Nothing has changed. We got right back to where we were two weeks ago."
The Bengals lost at Baltimore on Dec. 7 to fall one game back. Now they are again even. The Bengals defeated the 49ers on Sunday, and the Ravens lost at Oakland.
Here are possible ways that the Bengals and Ravens could tie for the AFC North title and the manner in which the championship would be decided:
Bengals defeat St. Louis and Cleveland; Baltimore defeats Cleveland and Pittsburgh: They would finish 10-6, and the Bengals would win the division because of the strength of victory tiebreaker.
Bengals lose to St. Louis and defeat Cleveland; Baltimore splits remaining two games in either order: The Bengals and Ravens would each finish 9-7. They would be even in the first tiebreaker, head-to-head play, but the Bengals would win the division by virtue of the second tiebreaker, a 4-2 division record compared to Baltimore's 3-3.
Bengals defeat St. Louis and lose to Cleveland; Baltimore splits its remaining games in either order: The teams would finish 9-7. They would be even in the first four tiebreakers, which are head-to-head play, division record, record against common opponents and record in the AFC. The Bengals would win the division by virtue of the fifth tiebreaker, strength of victory.
Bengals lose to St. Louis and Cleveland; and Baltimore loses to Cleveland and Pittsburgh: The Bengals and Ravens would finish 8-8. They would be even in the first tiebreaker, head-to-head play, but the Bengals would win the division by virtue of the second tiebreaker, a 3-3 division record compared to Baltimore's 2-4 mark.
Elias Sports Bureau has not studied tiebreakers involving the slim possibility of a tie game for both.
Notable numbers ...
The game at St. Louis will feature the leading receivers in both conferences. The Bengals' Chad Johnson leads the AFC with 1,211 receiving yards, and the Rams' Torry Holt leads the NFC with 1,518.
The Bengals' 8-6 record is a franchise-best for 14 games since the 1988 team was 11-3. The 1990 team won its last two to finish 9-7.
The Rams are third in the NFL in scoring and seventh in total offense (yards gained). The Bengals are 10th in offense and 27th in defense.
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