By Mark Curnutte
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Take it from Jon Kitna, who says, "The No. 1 factor is turnovers in this league."

If the Bengals are to upset undefeated Kansas City on Sunday, they can't turn over the ball and have to take away the ball from the Chiefs.

And both will be difficult.

The Chiefs lead the league with a plus-18 turnover differential. The Bengals are 11th at plus-3, their first non-negative such number since 1997.

KC leads the league with 19 interceptions and is tied for the second-most fumble recoveries with 10. The Chiefs have thrown just seven interceptions and lost four fumbles.

"We want to try to stay away from them and make wise decisions," Kitna said of turnovers. "Obviously, the quarterback position is the biggest factor there."

Kitna has nine touchdown passes and one interception in the Bengals' four victories.

He has four TDs and eight picks in the five losses.

Kitna has a similar history against the Chiefs. In four starts against Kansas City for Seattle, Kitna was 2-0 when throwing more touchdowns and 0-2 when throwing more interceptions.

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis keeps a close eye on turnover numbers.

"There's probably no statistic that correlates more closely with winning and losing than turnovers," Lewis said.

Look for the Chiefs to blitz linebackers and a safety to try to force Kitna into poor decisions.

Kansas City corners Dexter McCleon (5) and Eric Warfield (4) have nine interceptions, and free safety Jerome Woods has returned two of his three interceptions for touchdowns.

DON'T FALL BEHIND: The Bengals scored first Sunday against Houston for the first time in nine games - so they're 1-0 when scoring first.

Getting a lead, and not falling behind by more than a touchdown, will allow the Bengals to stay with Rudi Johnson on the ground.

The Chiefs are ranked 20th in the league in rush defense at 122.8 yards a game, so some holes will be there.

The Bengals have to be wary of Kansas City's ability to start fast.

Its 157 first-half points are most in the league, and it has won 10 in a row when leading at halftime.

The Bengals, on the other hand, have lost 13 of their last 14 games when trailing at halftime.

WATCH OUT FOR PRIEST: Priest Holmes is just one of many talented players on the stacked Kansas City offense, but the tailback is a major weapon.

The Bengals are ranked 25th in the league in rush defense at 127.4 yards a game.

If they can't contain Holmes, the likelihood of an upset decreases significantly.

Kansas City's running game sets up its play-action pass game.

Holmes has 14 rushing touchdowns - more than any other NFL team.

His 862 rushing yards are sixth in the league and his 1,261 yards from scrimmage are third.

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E-mail mcurnutte@enquirer.com

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