By Mark Curnutte
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Turnovers, as they most often are in the NFL, will be the deciding factor of the Bengals-Seahawks game Sunday.

The Seahawks, 5-1, are plus-10 in turnover differential - third best in the league. The Bengals, after their plus-three game Sunday against Baltimore, are just minus-1. That number puts them in the middle of NFL rankings at 13th.

The Bengals are 2-0 this season when committing no turnovers. They're 0-4 in games in which they've committed all nine of their 2003 turnovers. Seattle committed two of its six turnovers in its only loss, 35-13, at Green Bay.

These numbers are consistent with the NFL trend.

In 2002 and so far in 2003, teams committing no turnovers in a game win 80 percent of the time, according to Elias Sports Bureau.

A team that is plus-3 in turnovers in a game - as the Bengals were in beating Baltimore - will win 94 percent of the time, according to Elias. A plus-two team wins at an 85-percent clip, and a plus-1 performance wins 71 percent of the time.

"It changes the game plan," Bengals defensive tackle Tony Williams said of a turnover. "As a defense, it wears on you to have just stopped somebody, then to have to go right back.

"We've got to do more of that. If you look back at the history of all the games we've won since I've been here, it's been turnovers."

Williams is correct. The Bengals have won 10 games since he signed as a free agent in March 2001.

Since the start of the 2001 season (38 games) the Bengals have played four games in which they did not commit a turnover.

They won all four.

The Bengals were on the plus side in turnover-differential in seven of the 10 victories. They were minus-2 in a victory last season against New Orleans, and minus-1 in victories in 2001 against Baltimore and Tennessee. In the 10 victories, the Bengals are a combined plus-11 in turnovers.

This season, the Bengals are plus-4 in their two victories and minus-5 in the losses.

"It takes your defense off the field and limits their exposure to bad plays," Bengals coach Marvin Lewis said of a turnover.

SPY ON SHAUN: Seahawks tailback Shaun Alexander (Boone County High School) is playing in his home region for the first time as a pro. He will have some 400 people at Paul Brown Stadium as part of a formal homecoming event, countless more there informally.

He is a touchdown machine, with five rushing and one receiving score in six games. The Bengals need to keep him in check. The Seahawks are 9-2 when Alexander rushes for 100 yards in his career.

SOMETHING SPECIAL: The Bengals are improved on special teams. A better showing from kickoff returner Brandon Bennett or a long punt return from Peter Warrick would help their chances in what figures to be another close game.

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E-mail mcurnutte@enquirer.com

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