By CARL KOTALA
Florida Today

As the offensive coordinator on the team that has the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, Cincinnati's Bob Bratkowski knows the risk factor all too well.

Just because a guy is taken No. 1 doesn't guarantee he'll turn into a Hall of Famer - or even a good player.

"It's as much of a crapshoot as if you had the No. 10 pick, or the eighth pick, or the fifth pick," Bratkowski said. "It's no different, you would like to think. But everybody looks at THE first guy chosen and says, 'man, he must have been the best player in the draft' - which in most cases, he is."

Longtime Buffalo Bills' fans may wince a little at that one. In 1973, the team took the forgettable Walt Patulski, a defensive end from Notre Dame at No. 1.

Patulski may have been a finalist for the College Football Hall of Fame, but he was hardly a star in his four years as a pro before missing the next season with a knee injury.

Who else was in that draft? Hall of Fame running back Franco Harris, who was taken with the 13th pick.

In fact, of the 221 members that are in the Hall right now, only five were the No. 1 pick with three others - Troy Aikman, John Elway and Bruce Smith - potential candidates.

For every Earl Campbell, Ron Yary, O.J. Simpson, Terry Bradshaw and Lee Roy Selmon, there's a Steve Emtman, Ki-Jana Carter and Jeff George.

"There's too much expected of the guy because everybody thinks he's going to salvage the franchise," said former Dallas Cowboys executive Gil Brandt, who now writes a column for NFL.com. "What happens is most of the time, when you're the No. 1 pick, you're going to a pretty bad team. It's kind of like when you look and see what Elway did to start with, it wasn't very good as opposed to what (Dan) Marino did.

"His team went 7-2 when he was a starter the first year. Aikman went 0-11 and he was the first pick. One guy doesn't turn a team around."

In 1998, there was a great debate over which quarterback should be the top pick - Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf.

The Indianapolis Colts decided to go with Manning, leaving the San Diego Chargers with Leaf, who promptly signed a six-year, $31.25 million contract that included a $11.25 million signing bonus. Now, Leaf is out of the league.

"You draft a guy thinking he's going to be a franchise player and be in the pros for the next 10 years and build around the guy," San Diego Chargers Director of College Scouting Jimmy Raye said. "And it doesn't work out that way. It's an inexact science. That's the nature of the beast."

While it's still too early to judge the past few No. 1 picks - David Carr and Michael Vick - the Cleveland Browns are clearly disappointed in their back-to-back top choices of defensive end Courtney Brown and quarterback Tim Couch, who is in a battle with Kelly Holcomb for the starting job. Holcomb wasn't even drafted.

Bratkowski and the Bengals are expected to take a quarterback with their No. 1 pick on Saturday. If that's the case, Carson Palmer or Byron Leftwich will become the 13th quarterback to be taken with the first selection.

Quarterback is the most popular choice in that spot, but defensive linemen aren't far behind with 11 selections. There have been seven running backs taken there, with wide receivers, offensive linemen and linebackers all getting chosen first twice.

Whatever the Bengals do, Bratkowski said, the important thing is not to make a mistake.

"It probably stands out a little more," he said. "I don't know if you feel like you're under any more pressure. But if he does fail, it receives more scrutiny, whereas it doesn't make as much of a difference if the 12th pick of the draft fails. It doesn't get as much media scrutiny, outside of that town where they drafted him."

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