Friday, January 3, 2003
Super Bowl odds
By BOB MATTHEWS
Rochester (N.Y.) Democrat and Chronicle
Take heart, fans of the New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns.
Your teams had losing records last year but that might give them a psychological edge in the playoffs in this improbable and unpredictably exciting NFL season.
Popular preseason Super Bowl pick St. Louis and defending champion New England didn't qualify for the playoffs and the 12-team single-elimination tournament for the Vince Lombardi Trophy is wide open.
There are no great teams. Every one of them has flaws. But that's what makes the NFL so great. Nearly every team (except Cincinnati) has a chance to win on any given day - including in the postseason.
Predicting the outcome of NFL playoffs generally is an exercise in futility, but someone has to try to do it. So here are my playoff team ratings and odds:
1. Philadelphia Eagles
They proved in the final six games of the regular season (5-1 record) that they can win minus star quarterback Donovan McNabb. The big questions: Will McNabb be ready to play and how sharp will he be coming off a broken ankle?
The Eagles relied on an underrated rush offense and the NFL's fourth-ranked defense. They led all the playoff teams in sacks (56) and sack differential (plus-20) and were plus-13 in turnovers. McNabb at his best will upgrade the passing game.
The home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs could be significant, particularly if the Eagles host warm-weather Tampa Bay.
10th in total offense; 4th in total defense; outgained opponents by 850 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 7-to-2.
2. Oakland Raiders
They were built to go all the way this year and the classy veterans proved they have enough left to get the job done. The home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs will make them tough to beat.
The Raiders have the NFL's best passing game, triggered by league MVP Rich Gannon throwing to a batch of quality receivers, including Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Jerry Porter, tight ends Doug Jolley and Roland Williams and the underrated multi-purpose running back Charlie Garner. Tyrone Wheatley and Zack Crockett provide the power running.
Oakland is tough against the run but has some injury problems in the secondary and could be vulnerable against a hot passer.
1st in total offense; 11th in total defense; outgained opponents by 1,258 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 4-to-1.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
After a slow start (1-3) the Steelers were 9-2-1 and enter the playoffs as healthy as they've been all season.
The rushing game slipped a bit but new QB Tommy Maddox provided the consistent passing threat the team had lacked with Kordell Stewart. Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwaan Randle El are a versatile crop of targets. Jerome Bettis (sprained knee) might not be 100 percent but the Steelers don't lose much with Amos Zereoue.
The Steelers had the NFL's top-ranked rush defense and had 36 takeaways and 50 sacks.
The kicking game continues to be less than stellar and the Steelers must deal with bad memories of a 1-3 record in home AFC Championship Games under Bill Cowher.
5th in total offense; 7th in total defense; outgained opponents by 1,117 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 5-to-1.
4. Tennessee Titans
After a 1-4 start, the Titans were the NFL's hottest team (10-1 in their last 11 games, with the only loss by one point at Baltimore).
The Titans have some important championship ingredients. They have a solid running game with Eddie George, a versatile quarterback in Steve McNair, an improved pass rush with the return of Jevon Kearse, and they seldom beat themselves.
The team lacks quick-strike firepower and could have problems if it gets behind early.
17th in total offense; 10th in total defense; outgained opponents by 308 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 8-to-1.
5. Tampa Bay Bucs
If defense was all it took to win a championship, the Bucs would be favored. They allowed a league-low 252.8 yards per game. The NFL's next-stingiest defense (Carolina) allowed 290.4 yards per game.
But Tampa Bay probably lacks the running game (27th-ranked, 97.3 yards per game) and speed receivers to go all the way even if quarterback Brad Johnson is able to overcome his back problem. Playing in cold weather is another potential disaster.
24th in total offense; 1st in total defense; outgained opponents by 958 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 8-to-1.
6. Green Bay Packers
They're great at Lambeau Field (the NFL's only 8-0 home team this season) but failed to earn the home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
The Packers were the NFL's most resourceful team this season with a plus-17 turnover differential and plus-16 sack differential. They had to be to help offset injuries and a suspect rush defense.
Quarterback Brett Favre always is dangerous but he might not have the supporting cast he needs to win another championship.
12th in total offense; 12th in total defense; outgained opponents by 575 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 10-to-1.
7. New York Jets
Looking for a sleeper? The Jets played their best football of the season down the stretch (7-2 after a 2-5 start) and could be the healthiest team in the playoffs.
First-year starting QB Chad Pennington was the NFL's highest-rated passer and he has an underrated group of receivers (Laveranues Coles, Santana Moss, Wayne Chrebet and fullback Richie Anderson). Running back Curtis Martin is back in top form after an early-season injury.
The Jets defense had less than glittering stats but played considerably better in the second half of the season. John Abraham had 10 sacks but could use some help rushing the passer.
If the 2001 Patriots (19th in offense and 24th in defense) could go all the way last year, why can't these Jets do it?
22nd in total offense; 24th in total defense; outgained opponents by 583 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 12-to-1.
8. San Francisco 49ers
No team in the playoffs is more difficult to figure out. Steve Mariucci's team has the talent to be very good but seldom dominated an opponent this season.
It isn't easy being a bland team with Terrell Owens on the roster, but the 49ers have managed to do it.
They protect the football (NFL-low 17 giveaways) and their QB (allowed only 22 sacks), but aside from Owens' pass catching, they don't do anything else exceedingly well.
It is difficult to envision the 49ers winning the four games they'd need to become champions.
8th in total offense; 14th in total defense; outgained opponents by 543 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 15-to-1.
9. Indianapolis Colts
Coach Tony Dungy was hired to improve the team's defense and he did. The Colts went from 29th in 2001 to eighth this season and allowed 173 fewer points. The defensive unit is undersized but quick and could be vulnerable against strong rushing attacks. Rookie Dwight Freeney (13 sacks) has upgraded the pass rush.
The offense lacked consistency, mainly because Edgerrin James has bad knees and averaged only 3.6 yards per carry. Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison (record 143 catches) is the NFL's best passing combination but injured Qadry Ismail will be missed.
9th in total offense; 8th in total defense; outgained opponents by 707 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 20-to-1.
10. New York Giants
They went from zeroes to heroes with four straight wins to earn a playoff berth.
Kerry Collins has been hot lately but still has to prove he is a big-game quarterback. Tiki Barber, Amani Toomer and rookie tight end Jeremy Shockey are dangerous offensive players but there isn't much firepower behind them.
The defense had only 25 takeaways (including 11 interceptions) and would have to force more turnovers for a long postseason run.
6th in total offense; 9th in total defense; outgained opponents by 877 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 25-to-1.
11. Atlanta Falcons
QB Michael Vick is the NFL's most exciting player but the Falcons are unlikely to be a championship threat until he has more talented players to hand off and throw to.
The defense improved from 30th in 2001 to 20th this season but gave up plenty of yards and lots of points to quality teams and wilted down the stretch as the Falcons were 1-3 in their last four games.
14th in total offense; 20th in total defense; outgained opponents by 201 yards.
ODDS TO WIN SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 50-to-1.
12. Cleveland Browns
They would have been the longest shot in the field even before franchise quarterback Tim Couch broke his leg. Now it is up to backup QB Kelly Holcomb. The biggest offensive plus is the improvement by rookie running back William Green.
The 21st-ranked defense had 29 takeaways and only 28 sacks (including nine in one game against Houston). Injured defensive end Courtney Brown wasn't tearing up the NFL but his loss can't be a plus.
A 6-2 road record and playing the most close games in the league this season are signs that the Browns are a competitive team on the upgrade, but this season's playoffs figure to be a learning experience for coach Butch Davis and his young team.
23rd in total offense; 21st in total defense; outgained by opponents by 321 yards (the only playoff team in the minus column).
ODDS TO WINB SUPER BOWL XXXVII: 100-to-1.
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