Sunday, December 15, 2002
Draft: No.1 overall pick looms for Bengals
No one player clearly top choice, but Palmer, Leftwich at head of QB class
By Mark Curnutte
The Cincinnati Enquirer
At 1-12, the Bengals have the inside track on the first overall pick in April's draft. They have a two-game lead with three games remaining over three teams with 3-10 records: Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota.
But - bad luck being the Bengals' way for more than a decade - this is not a good year to have the first overall pick, according to a consensus of draft experts. There is no clear No. 1, and the Bengals probably will be forced to overpay whomever they select.
Trading down for additional picks is a possibility, but teams might not want the top pick for the same reason the Bengals wouldn't.
"The only rumor I've heard is (Redskins owner) Daniel (Snyder) is crazed over getting Carson Palmer," said Jerry Jones, publisher of The Drugstore List draft guide.
Palmer, the quarterback from Southern California who won the Heisman Trophy, has climbed many draft boards after an impressive senior season in which he threw for 3,639 yards and 32 touchdowns. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. projects Palmer as the No. 1 overall, three places ahead of Marshall quarterback Byron Leftwich.
Sports Illustrated's Peter King says the Bengals should take Leftwich at No. 1.
Palmer reportedly is also a favorite of Washington coach Steve Spurrier, even though the Redskins spent their 2002 first-round pick on quarterback Patrick Ramsey of Tulane.
The Redskins played a major role in what has developed as the Bengals' most successful draft of the Mike Brown era, 1998. The Redskins traded their first- and third-round picks to the Bengals in exchange for defensive tackle Dan Wilkinson. That additional first-round pick, No. 17 overall, was used to take linebacker Brian Simmons from North Carolina. The Bengals drafted linebacker Takeo Spikes No. 13 that year from Auburn.
"This year, they need numbers of players more than they need any one player," says Jones, a former Bengals draft-room insider. "They should try to get 12 or 13 players. They need the bodies and to create competition for roster spots. They should keep trading down."
A Bengals choice of Palmer or any other quarterback would require some other decisions to be made first. Do the Bengals plan to bring back offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and his system? If so, says Bengals radio analyst Dave Lapham, the team should stick with Jon Kitna and draft a quarterback in a lower round - such as California's Kyle Boller, whom the Bengals have scouted heavily.
"If they don't (retain Bratkowski), maybe they think about drafting Palmer at No. 1, because everything is back to square one," Lapham says. "Jon's big advantage goes away a little bit with the system. He still has more experience, more football IQ, and he'd be a great guy to groom a quarterback no matter what system you have in place."
It took a season and a half, but Bratkowski's system appears to be clicking. The Bengals have scored 20 or more points in seven consecutive games for the first time since 1985. Kitna has thrown 14 touchdown passes and four interceptions and is averaging 269.6 yards passing in those seven games. His passer rating is 102.0.
A quarterback trio of Kitna, Joe Germaine and Palmer or Boller is a possibility. Don't expect Gus Frerotte or Akili Smith to return for the 2003 season. Smith is a possible June 1 release.
Brown and other Bengals front-office personnel, as part of an interview blackout imposed early last week, declined to comment about the team's draft plans or needs.
Defensive help
If Bratkowski and Kitna stay, the Bengals probably will look early at defensive players.
Unlike 2001, when the defense finished with a No. 9 ranking, it has been the biggest problem in 2002. The Bengals enter the Jacksonville game today having surrendered the most points in the league, 387, although 65 have been scored without the defense on the field.
The defensive line was not deep even before injuries took tackle Oliver Gibson and end Vaughn Booker out of the lineup. Most of the problems have been against the run, where the Bengals are ranked 30th, at 135.5 yards a game.
The top two defensive tackles are William Joseph of Miami (Fla.) and Jimmy Kennedy of Penn State. Kiper has Kennedy rated as the third-best player available and calls him a "complete package." Joseph is Kiper's seventh player and is referred to as a "collapse-the-pocket style of lineman."
The top end on many lists is Miami's Jerome McDougle, "a force off the edge," Kiper said.
Said Jones, "Gibson and (Tony) Williams are good players, but they need more depth."
Cornerback is another area of need. Terence Newman of Kansas State is clearly the No. 1 cornerback entering the draft. Artrell Hawkins is a solid starter, but free agent Jeff Burris has been a disappointment. Anticipated secondary depth has not developed, either.
"I've seen (Newman) play many times," said Lapham, who also does Big 12 television broadcasts. "I think he's a first-round pick, but not a first pick."
Picking early, often
If the Bengals maintain the hold on the No. 1 pick, it will be theirs for the third time in 10 years.
They took Wilkinson from Ohio State in 1994 after a 3-13 finish in 1993.
In 1995, the Bengals traded the Nos. 5 and 36 picks to Carolina for the first overall choice. They took Penn State running back Ki-Jana Carter, whose repeated injuries and missteps came to symbolize the Bengals in the 1990s.
The 2003 draft also will be the 10th time in the string of 12 seasons without a playoff berth that the Bengals are drafting in the top 10. Quarterbacks David Klingler (No. 6 overall in 1992) and Smith (No. 3 overall in 1999) have been unsuccessful.
Still, the Bengals have chosen wisely many times. Right tackle Willie Anderson, the 10th overall in 1996, is one of the team's bedrock players. So are Spikes and Simmons. Wide receiver Peter Warrick was the fourth overall pick in 2000, and although he scored 13 touchdowns in two-plus seasons on some bad offenses, expectations remain high.
Defensive end Justin Smith, No. 4 in 2001, had 8.5 sacks as a rookie, and his dip in production in 2002 is largely the result of the defense's overall shortcomings.
And although experts criticized the Bengals for "reaching" for left tackle Levi Jones at No. 10 in 2002, Jones has been a valuable starter for nine games in place of the injured Richmond Webb. Jones looks like a fixture for years to come.
The roster includes each of the past eight first-round picks.
"If you look at their drafts and evaluate them with other drafts in the NFL, I don't think they're that far off in terms of identifying guys who can play in the league," Lapham said. "For whatever reason, in a lot of cases, they haven't developed to the point where they would make a big impact or impression.
"I don't think they were drafted in the wrong spots. But in a lot of cases, you can't say the development is everything you would have liked, or they would be in a lot better spot than 1-12."
E-mail mcurnutte@enquirer.com
The next Bengal?
The Bengals have the NFL's worst record at 1-12 and a two-game lead for the first overall pick in the April 26-27 draft. Five potential No.1 overall picks:
| Player | Pos. | Ht., Wt. | School | Comment |
| William Joseph | DT | 6-4 1/2, 293 | Miami (Fla.) | Good run stopper; 15 tackles for loss; collapses the pocket; doesn't always stay low |
| Jimmy Kennedy | DT | 6-4 3/4, 330 | Penn State | 15 tackles for loss; best against the run; surprising quickness for his size; some concerns about weight |
| Jerome McDougle | DE | 6-3 1/2, 261 | Miami (Fla.) | Former junior-college player; explosive pass rusher with seven sacks; makes good reads; could add bulk |
| Terence Newman | CB | 5-10 1/2, 181 | Kansas State | Won Jim Thorpe Award as nation's top defensive back; can play the ball in the air but sometimes takes too many chances; not afraid to tackle; good kick returner; has played offense |
| Carson Palmer | QB | 6-5 1/4, 235 | Southern Cal | 303 yards a game and 32 TDs in pro-style offense; decision-making has had to catch up with talent |
Bengals' draft picks selected in the top five:
2001: Justin Smith, DE (4th overall)
