Tuesday, August 27, 2002
AFC's best division? Try the East
By BARRY WILNER
AP Football Writer
They are the defending Super Bowl champions, yet the New England Patriots probably are the third-best team in their division.
Such is parity in the NFL these days that the team that shocked everyone — including some of its own players — by winning the championship in January figures to struggle to earn a playoff berth.
Winning the AFC's best division? Not likely.
Of course, that's exactly what the Patriots want everyone to think. They sneaked up on the rest of the conference in 2001, and would have no problem with the same approach this year.
“We don't have any "Prime Times.' We don't have any superstars,” says Adam Vinatieri, whose clutch field goals won the controversial playoff game against Oakland and the Super Bowl against St. Louis. “The record is 0-0 right now and everybody's trying to get ready for September.”
Everyone will be ready for the Patriots this time, which puts tremendous pressure on quarterback Tom Brady. The feel-good story of last season, Brady must build on his stunning success, and do it on a team that has more holes than most defending champions.
“I think we're going to have to find different ways to do different things that worked last year,” Brady admits. “Probably some of them, I promise you, aren't going to work this year.”
Some of the things that should work are Brady — who no longer has competition at the position with Drew Bledsoe traded to Buffalo — throwing to David Patten, Donald Hayes, exciting rookie Deion Branch and veteran Troy Brown. Brown finally got the recognition he was due thanks to his performance down the stretch and through last winter's playoffs.
The power running of Antowain Smith and coach Bill Belichick's masterly defensive schemes were critical to last year's success.
But consider that Smith has been an inconsistent player throughout his career; the offensive line is so-so; and too many of Belichick's defenders are role players.
New England needs a star to emerge up front defensively; tackle Richard Seymour is a good candidate.
The Pats' biggest problem this season simply might be that both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets are better.
And very hungry.
“You can tell that everybody's gunning for you,” Smith says. “They look at it as they're playing the defending world champions so we have to go out there and match everyone's intensity.”
The Patriots will get a chance to do so early, facing the Steelers, Jets, Dolphins and Packers in the first six weeks.
Miami has an easier opening schedule and several significant additions. Most notable are RB Ricky Williams and offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
Look for the Dolphins to establish the kind of versatile running game they've lacked for decades. Williams might not lead the league in rushing, but he will have a bigger impact than any runner who switched teams.
“The things Ricky does after the ball is snapped are unbelievable,” says Turner, who has produced a 1,200-yard gainer in eight of the past 11 seasons.
The threat Williams provides should ease QB Jay Fiedler's burden. Coming off hip surgery, Fiedler should not be depended on too much. If Williams sets the offensive tone, then Fiedler and WR Chris Chambers, who was spectacular late in his rookie year, become more dangerous.
“I'm not one to brag,” Chambers says, “but you can feel that this is a pretty good team. I can't wait until we go against somebody else and see what we can do.”
The offensive line is in flux, though, and the defense needs more rest during games. It is a strong unit led by solid cover cornerbacks Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain, do-everything LB Zach Thomas and quick DE Jason Taylor. But the defensive line could be thin.
That's not a problem for the Jets, who added a No. 1 draft pick (Bryan Thomas) and three free agents (Steve White, Josh Evans and Larry Webster) to All-Pro end John Abraham. If Abraham recovers well from a preseason knee injury and the other end, Shaun Ellis, awakens, the line will be formidable.
The linebacker trio of Mo Lewis, Marvin Jones and Sam Cowart already is. Cowart comes off a torn Achilles' tendon in the 2001 opener while with Buffalo. His return to form is pivotal.
New York's secondary is among the slowest in football, but it supports in run defense like no other in the conference.
The offense, in its second season under coordinator Paul Hackett's West Coast scheme, should be productive. QB Vinny Testaverde looks sharp at 38, and wide receivers Santana Moss and Laveranues Coles provide lots of speed. Curtis Martin is one of the five best running backs in football.
Oddly, the most improved team in the AFC East could be Buffalo, yet the Bills are destined to finish last. They won only three times in '01, ranking next-to-last in points scored and allowed.
Bledsoe is a huge upgrade at quarterback, but the line is weak, there is no established running back and Bledsoe could be a sitting duck. Given time to throw, he'll find top-rate receivers in Eric Moulds and rookie Josh Reed, but he might not get the time.
The defense has been torn apart by free agency, retirements and injuries recently. Newcomer London Fletcher at middle linebacker will help, but not nearly enough.
Prediction: Miami (11-5); New York (10-6, wild card); New England (10-6); Buffalo 5-11.
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AFC's best division? Try the East
