Sunday, February 03, 2002

Super Bowl: The Edge


Curnutte's prediction: St. Louis 33, New England 23

By Mark Curnutte
The Cincinnati Enquirer

        Quarterbacks

        Rams: Kurt Warner is the best quarterback in football. The Rams' precision-pass game is built around what he does best. His career-high 4,830 pass yards are second-most in NFL history.

        Patriots: Tom Brady has the hot hand (13-3) and was the right choice to start ahead of veteran Drew Bledsoe. No Patriots player would say it directly, but some came close: Brady got them this far.

        Edge: Rams

        Running backs

        Rams: Marshall Faulk is the best player in football. When the Rams need to run — see the NFC title game against the Eagles — Faulk can run. He also was the team's leading receiver, with 83 catches. He became the first player in NFL history to have more than 2,000 total yards for four consecutive seasons.

        Patriots: With Antowain Smith leading the way, the Pats were 12th in the league in rushing. New England had trouble running on Oakland and Pittsburgh in playoff victories. The Pats will need some success on the ground to keep the Rams offense off the field.

        Edge: Rams

        Wide receivers/tight ends

        Rams: These guys are the other end of the Greatest Show on Turf. Torry Holt (1,363 yards) and Isaac Bruce (1,106) are electric wide receivers. Can anybody stop them?

        Patriots: Troy Brown is the Patriots' biggest receiving threat. He had 101 catches for 1,199 yards. Backup tight end Jermaine Wiggins is tied for the team lead with 12 postseason receptions.

        Edge: Rams

        Offensive line

        Rams: Left tackle Orlando Pace is playing with a sprained ligament in his left knee. Ex-Bengals tackle Rod Jones gets the start on the other side. This unit doesn't get a lot of recognition, but the Rams' circus starts up front.

        Patriots: High-effort free agents in coach Bill Belichick's image play well as a group, with no individual stars. They gave up 46 sacks in regular season, but actually did well to limit the blitzing Steelers to four sacks.

        Edge: Rams

        Special teams

        Rams: Coach Mike Martz says his special teams have improved a great deal since midseason. Like the rest of the team, they're fast. Kicker Jeff Wilkins' 127 points were second on the team to Faulk's 128.

        Patriots: They field the NFL's best special teams. Just ask the Steelers, who gave up two touchdowns to these guys. Belichick plays starters on special teams, and it shows. Adam Vinatieri is a clutch kicker.

        Edge: Patriots

        Defensive line

        Rams: Rush specialist Leonard Little led the team with 14.5 sacks from the end. The Rams were third in the league in rush defense at 85.9 yards a game. Grant Wistrom can provide pressure at end, with nine sacks, and also is strong against the run.

        Patriots: The statistics look bad for the Patriots all the way around. NE ranks in the bottom half in both yards allowed rushing and passing, but are fifth in points allowed (17 per game.) This is a versatile defense that can alternate between a three-man line and a four-man line.

        Edge: Rams

        Linebackers:

        Rams: The made-over defense has been modeled after the Rams offense - speed, and more speed. London Fletcher has emerged as a star.

        Patriots: Belichick's linebackers are smart and play well as a unit. Roman Phifer was second on the team with 92 tackles. Tedy Bruschi is an emotional leader.

        Edge: Patriots

        Defensive backs

        Rams: The pass defense is capable of taking over a game; Brett Favre will say as much. Newcomers Aeneas Williams and Kim Herring have provided veteran leadership. Nickel back Dre' Bly led the team with six interceptions.

        Patriots: If any secondary in the league can slow down the Rams offense, it's the Patriots'. Safety Lawyer Milloy led the team with 113 tackles and had three sacks and two interceptions. Cornerbacks Otis Smith and Ty Law will try to get physical with Rams WRs.

        Edge: Patriots

        Coaching:

        Rams: Martz and the Rams organization were wise to upgrade their defense in the offseason. A lot of credit goes to the front office. But coaching the Rams compares to managing the Big Red Machine: Keep the egos from colliding. The rest is easy.

        Patriots: Belichick did the best job of coaching in the NFL. He went further than he should have with his talent. He made all the right moves: sticking with Brady, suspending Terry Glenn, etc. He'll have to coach the game of his life defensively for his team to win.

        Edge: Patriots

        Overall

        Rams: St. Louis has too much talent and is too well-coached to be denied its second Super Bowl title in three years. The upgrade on defense, to go along with the explosive offense, makes the Rams a great team.

        Patriots: Their strength is their ability to play selflessly as a team. They'd be better off playing outdoors in the snow again. If Brady struggles early, Belichick might turn to Bledsoe in the second half.

        Edge: Rams

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Ask Mark
       Curnutte's prediction: St. Louis 33, New England 23

        LAST WEEK: 1-1. OVERALL: 161-97.

       Mark Curnutte covers the Bengals for the Enquirer. He can be reached here.



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