Thursday, January 11, 2001
Dillon calling the shots
Corey Dillon can afford to overplay his hand because he holds all the cards. He can afford to go for broke because he's bound to wind up rich.
The Cincinnati Bengals' running back has rejected a $60 million contract proposal on the tenuous theory that a better deal may be available on the open market. He has forsaken the gilded bird in the hand in favor of a possible bonanza in the bush.
And you know what? He's probably right.
Dillon may be taking a miscalculated risk here, estimating his potential value based on ego rather than reality. He may be so eager to flee Mike Brown's grasp that he can reconcile the possibility of leaving some money on the table in order to preserve a viable exit strategy. He may have developed another hankering to flip burgers professionally.
Deciphering Dillon's strategy can be as tough as tackling him. He tends to treat negotiations as a blood sport rather than a mating dance: all take and no give. Once Dillon gets a number in his head - in this case a $15 million signing bonus - he becomes intractable. Even his own advisers can't convince him to budge.
So much going for him
Yet what might seem for the moment an imprudent gamble ultimately may prove a brilliant percentage play. Few football players of Corey Dillon's stature have ever gone to the bargaining table with so much going for them. Fewer still have been able to count on a sympathetic public as they haggle for more millions.
Dillon is 25 years old, fresh off his finest season, and comparatively unfettered by free agent restrictions. To settle a grievance with the National Football League Players Association, the Bengals waived their right to designate a “franchise” player this year. When Dillon subsequently ran for 1,435 yards - including a record 278 against Denver - this became a costly concession.
Club lost leverage
Mike Brown & Relatives retain the right of first refusal, but they have lost much of their leverage. They can keep Dillon in Cincinnati by making him their “transition” player and matching whatever offer he accepts from a competing club. Yet because the Bengals will receive no draft-choice compensation if they decline to match Dillon's best deal, the bidding figures to be brisk.
Designating a “franchise” player is an act of power. Designating a “transition” player is an act of prayer. A star player whose rights can be obtained at no cost except cash is a considerable commodity in today's NFL. The Bengals would not have offered Dillon a $12 million signing bonus unless they feared his price would go higher on the auction block.
What's to prevent the Cleveland Browns from raising the ante on Dillon? If the Bengals chose not to match Cleveland's offer, the Browns would get an elite running back at the expense of a division rival. If the Bengals matched, they would do so at a price that would reduce their salary cap flexibility. Either way, the Browns benefit.
Politically, Mike Brown has little choice but to pay Dillon's market price. Having retained a 4-12 coaching staff, resisted advice to abdicate his own position and infuriated fans with his continued intransigence, the Bengals' owner can ill-afford to lose his best player.
Like a lot of NFL defenses, Mike Brown can't expect to stop Corey Dillon. He can only hope to contain him.
E-mail: tsullivan@enquirer.com.
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SULLIVAN: Dillon calling the shots